Novartis is set to deliver the strongest prescription pharmaceutical sales growth of any Big Pharma company over the next five years, based on organic performance, according to independent market analyst Datamonitor.
“The organisation is expected to deliver a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of more than four per cent, which would add more than USD$10 billion to sales,” says Simon King, PharmaVitae analyst at Datamonitor in London.
Datamonitor is forecasting an average of just 1.4 per cent CAGR for Big Pharma generally over the same period.
“Integral to Novartis delivering a sales growth performance well above average is the company’s heavily diversified prescription pharmaceutical offering,” adds Mr. King.
Structurally, the company’s prescription pharmaceuticals business comprises the second largest global generics player Sandoz; whilst its vaccine business, which it inherited via the acquisition of Chiron, is the industry’s fifth largest vaccine business.
“Whilst exposure of blockbuster brands to generic competition from 2011 onwards will decelerate sales growth from the branded pharmaceuticals portfolio, neither the vaccine nor Sandoz businesses will be exposed to a directly comparable competitive threat. This is an inherent factor that has both driven Novartis’s investment in these market segments and which will dictate stronger sales growth performances for these units over 2009 to 2015,” says Mr. King.