The total number of people living with diabetes worldwide is expected to more than double over the next 30 years.
The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021 estimates 529 million people were living with diabetes across the world in 2021, with that number expected to grow to over 1.31 billion by 2050.
The numbers are based on data from 204 countries and territories, across 25 age groups.
Over that stretch of time, the age-standardised global diabetes prevalence is expected to increase from 6.1% to 9.8%, according to the study, published in The Lancet.1
Type 2 diabetes comprised 96% of the total diabetes diagnoses in 2021. It also accounted for 95.4% of the diabetes disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), the sum of years of life lost due to premature death plus the years lived with disability.
the outlook for a healthy future is further marred by the lack of sustained progress in strategies designed to remediate diabetes
Monumental Health Threat
Study author Dr Kanyin Liane Ong, of the University of Washington, and colleagues described diabetes as a “monumental global health threat, posing increasing challenges to public health and healthcare systems worldwide”.
The study said in low- and middle-income populations, “the shift away from a traditional diet to an industrialised one has been abrupt and is associated with considerable increases in nutrition-related non-communicable diseases such as type 2 diabetes”.
The study authors warned “the outlook for a healthy future is further marred by the lack of sustained progress in strategies designed to remediate diabetes”.
“Diabetes was already a substantial concern in 2021 and is set to become an even greater public health issue over the coming three decades, with no effective mitigation strategy currently in place. We need to urgently identify solutions that will limit population increases in risk factors for diabetes, otherwise the advance of the disease is likely to continue unabated,” Dr Ong and colleagues wrote.
“At the same time, we must enhance and expand access to better diabetes care to limit the complications associated with the disease,” the investigators added.
Reference
- GBD 2021 Diabetes Collaborators, Global, regional, and national burden of diabetes from 1990 to 2021, with projections of prevalence to 2050: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021, Lancet 2023; DOI: 1016/ S0140-6736(23)01301-6.
